Floods are major natural hazards affecting large areas and millions of people world-wide every year. They are a regularly recurring phenomenon with strong environmental and socio-economic impacts. Flood prevention and protection will be one of the most important challenges for all parties involved in flood risk management in the coming decades. It will be a continuous task of governmental bodies and scientific institutes, in close cooperation with society and business, to look for innovative methods for flood protection and prevention, especially in a transboundary context.
Recent developments in flood forecasting allow for better quantification of uncertainties that come with flood forecasting modelling. Information about uncertainties must be communicated to decision makers as well as to the general public. The change from pure deterministic to more probabilistic forecasts is a challenge for all stages of flood risk management.
The workshop will present recent developments, look for knowledge gaps and discuss new perspectives.
To introduce new approaches in hydrological and meteorological forecasting
To discuss ways of assessing, communicating and accepting uncertainty
To improve practical decision making based on a better understanding of theory
To foster integrated approaches (model chain, risk assessment, decision and communication)
To explore ways of integrating predictive uncertainty into decision making processes
To address the benefits of forecasting systems
The International Commission for the Hydrology of the Rhine Basin (CHR) invites scientists, decision makers and stakeholders in the field of flood prediction, flood prevention and crisis management to discuss these issues during a two-day workshop.
Structure and workshop themes
The workshop is divided in three plenary working sessions:
Theme 1: New approaches to flood forecasting
Forecasting systems (HYDROLOGY, METEOROLOGY)
Quantification of uncertainty
Ensemble and probabilistic forecasting
Theme 2: Aspects of decision making for flood damage prevention
Understanding and enhancing public's behavioural response to flood warning information
General principles of theory - versus actual practice
Boundary conditions and drivers of decision making (economy)
Integrated decision support systems (DSS)
Decision making under known uncertainty (risk informed decision making)
Theme 3: Acceptance and communication of flood warnings
Verification of forecast and warning
Assessment of predictive uncertainty
Communication of uncertainty
Human factor (psychological aspects of forecasting and warning)
Role of media/competing services
The invitation to the event is issued by the International Commission for the Hydrology of the Rhine Basin (CHR) in cooperation with the COST731 Action, the Swiss Federal Office for the Environment, the German Federal Institute for Hydrology, the German IHP/HWRP Secretariat, the German Association of Hydrological Sciences, the Netherlands National Committee IHP-HWRP, and the Dutch Centre for Water Management.
Working language of the workshop will be English.