Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Discharge in the River Rhine Basin. Results of the RheinBlick2050 project

Görgen, K.; Beersma, J.; Buiteveld, H.; Brahmer, G.; Carambia, M.; Keizer, O. de; Krahe, P.; Nilson, E.; Lammersen, R.; Perrin, C.; Volken, D.
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Rapport I-23 [22.74 MB]
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Table of contents
  Reading Guide
  CHR / RheinBlick2050 Project Group
  General Information on the International Commission for the Hydrology of the Rhine Basin (CHR)
  Table of Contents
1 Introduction
1.1 State of the Art
1.2 Study Motivation and Objectives
1.3 Study Area
1.4 Structure of the Report
2 Overview of Available Data and Processing Procedures
2.1 Overview of Datasets
2.1.1 Discharge Reference Data
2.1.2 Hydrometeorological Reference Data
2.1.3 Climate Change Projections
2.2 Atmospheric Data Processing
2.2.1 Temporal and Spatial Aggregation
2.2.2 Bias-Correction Methods
2.3 Rainfall Generator
2.4 Hydrological Models
2.4.1 Short Overview
2.4.2 Semi-Distributed Model HBV
2.4.3 Lumped Models
2.4.4 Evaporation Approaches
2.5 Model Coupling Experiment and Analyses Design, Limitations
2.5.1 Data Flowpath
2.5.2 Target Measures
2.5.3 Representation of Results
2.5.4 Limitations of the Experiment Design
3 Evaluation of Data and Processing Procedures
3.1 Evaluation and Selection of Climate Model Runs
3.1.1 Evaluation of Spatial Structures Based on Annual Means (Step 1)
3.1.2 Evaluation of the Annual Cycle (Step 2)
3.1.3 Outlier Identification (Step 3)
3.1.4 Discussion and Selection (Step 4)
3.1.5 Conclusion
3.2 Effects of Bias-Correction and Time-Series Resampling
3.2.1 Results of Bias-Correction
3.2.2 Combined Results of Resampling and Bias-Correction
3.2.3 Limitations of the Bias-Corrected Resampled Series
3.2.4 Conclusions
3.3 Hydrological Model Performance and Uncertainty Analysis
3.3.1 Model Performance Evaluation over the Reference Period
3.3.2 Quantification of Model Uncertainty
3.3.3 Conclusions
3.4 Comparison of HBV134-Simulations with Observed Target Statistics
3.4.1 Validation Results
3.4.2 Discussion of the Validation Results
3.4.3 Conclusions
3.5 Overall Conclusions of the validation
4 Meteorological Changes in the Rhine River Basin
4.1 Data and Methods
4.2 Annual Cycles Changes
4.3 Seasonal Changes
4.4 Robustness of the Precipitation Change Sinals
4.5 Conclusions
5 Changes in Mean Flow in the Rhine River Basin
5.1 Data and Methods
5.2 Projected Changes for Mean Flows
5.3 Conclusions
6 Low Flow Changes in the Rhine River Basin
6.1 Data and Methods
6.2 Low Flow (NM7Q)
6.3 Low Flow (FDC_Q90)
6.4 Conclusions
7 High Flow Changes in the Rhine River Basin
7.1 Data and Methods
7.2 Projected Changes for High Flows
7.3 Conclusions
8 Report Summary and Overall Conclusions
9 Outlook
  Nomenclatures, Definitaions, Abbreviations and Acronyms
  CHR Publications


A Target Measures
A.1 Questionnaire
A.2 Feedback
B Regional Climate Change Projections Data Overview
C Hydrological Model Features
D Performance of Hydrological Models
D.1 Detailed Results of Hydrological Models over the Reference Period (1961-1990)
D.2 Hydrological Model Testing
E Air Temperature and Precipitation Changes
F Extreme Value Analyses of Simulated Discharges
G Flood Statistics Provided by the German Federal States and Rijkswaterstaat
  Additional Material
  Individual Authors Contributions Overview
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