Workshop Ensemble Prediction and Uncertainties in Flood Forecasting

Programme

Date: 
13.10.2008
Location: 

30 March 2006

09.00 Welcome + Introduction to the goals of the workshop - Prof. Dr. Manfred Spreafico – President of the CHR
09.10 Therese Bürgi - Federal Office for Environment: Swiss hydrological forecast system - Objectives and problem statement
09.25 Keynote
John Schaake - U.S. National Weather Service: Hydrologic ensemble prediction: Past, present and opportunities for the future
Theme block I -  Uncertainty in numerical weather predictions
Chairman: Ilmar Karro / Rapporteur: Michael Kunz
10.10 Per Undén - Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute: Global EPS systems - principles, use and limitations
10.40 Coffee and Tea + Poster Session
11.10 André Walser / Mathias Rotach - MeteoSwiss: The benefit of a limited-area ensemble prediction system with respect to flood forecasting
11.45 Susanne Theis - German Weather Service: Plans for high-resolution forecasts and ensembles at the German Weather Service
12.15 Georg Pistotnik - Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics Vienna: Combination of meteorological nowcasting and ensemble methods in operational flood forecasting
12.45 Discussion on Theme I
13.15 Lunch
Theme block II - Hydrological Ensemble Forecasts
Chairman: Günter Blöschl / Rapporteur: Daniel Viviroli
14.30 Roman Krzysztofowicz - Systems Engineering and Statistics - University of Virginia: Bayesian theory of ensemble forecasting
15.00 Florian Pappenberger - University of Lancaster, Department of Environmental Science: Cascading uncertainty in flood forecasting
15.30 Christian Reszler - Institute of Hydraulics and Water Resources Engineering - Technical University Vienna: Operational ensemble forecasts of floods
16.00 Coffee and Tea + Poster Session
16.30 Göran Lindström - Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute: Evaluation of ensemble streamflow forecasting at SMHI
17.00 Mark Verbunt - Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH: Ensemble Flood Forecasting in Switzerland: Selected case studies of extreme events 
17.30 Massimiliano Zappa - Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research: Towards (quasi-)operational demonstration of hydrometeorological ensemble prediction systems: The MAP D-PHASE and COST PROFIT projects
18.00 Discussion on Theme II
19.30 Workshop Dinner

 

31 March 2006

Theme block III - Communication of Uncertainties 
Chairman: Peter Krahe / Rapporteur: Clemens Mathis
09.00 Frank Lantsheer - Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute: Severe weather warnings and focus on awereness
09.30 Jutta Thielen - Joint Research Centre, Land management Unit: Added value of ensemble prediction system products for medium-range flood forecasting on European scale
10.00 Christoph Hegg - Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research: IFKIS-HYDRO an information system for flood risks at local & regional levels
10.30 Coffee and Tea + Poster Session
11.00 Gerd Tetzlaff - German Committee for Disaster Prevention: Uncertainties of forecasts of extreme precipitation events
11.30 Leonie Bolwidt / Ben Zweverink - Rijkswaterstaat RIZA and Directorate East Netherlands: Dealing with uncertainties during high discharge conditions in The Netherlands
12.00 Discussion on Theme III
12.45 Summary and Conclusion of the Workshop
13.15 Closing of the Workshop
13.30 Lunch

 

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